All updates to the Japan PR (永住) wait time estimator, newest first. Back to the estimator.
2026-07-12 Reduced the impact of monthly fluctuations on predictions
To account for possible swings in application volume around the permanent residence application fee increase in October, the model’s handling of unusual single-month data was adjusted. One outlier month will no longer have an outsized effect on predictions. Predictions for people who have already applied are unchanged; predictions for those planning to apply soon or in the future will shift slightly starting with the next data update and will continue to recalibrate automatically as new monthly data arrives.
2026-06-11 Recalibrated Tokyo HSP predictions
After adding more real approval cases, Tokyo HSP predictions were recalibrated and minashi-HSP cases are now counted under the HSP track. New samples show that applications filed in summer 2024 took longer than previously estimated: predictions for HSP applications from July 2024 onward are now about 10 days longer, while June 2024 is essentially unchanged. Historical predictions for applications filed between 2023 and May 2024 had been 30–50 days too long and have now been corrected. Tokyo Humanities predictions and all other bureaus are unaffected.
2026-06-09 Updated the About page and case data
The About page is now organized as a set of expandable FAQs, making information easier to find. More real approval cases were also added, particularly for Tokyo, and grouped by the number of document requests. Prediction errors for each bureau have also been recalculated using the latest data.
2026-05-20 Corrected overly optimistic Osaka predictions
Adjusted the Osaka bureau’s prediction logic to correct predictions that had recently been too optimistic. Over the past year and a half, Osaka has maintained a large backlog while monthly processing volume has varied widely. The Osaka model therefore no longer assumes that processing speeds will rise as the backlog grows. This change applies only to Osaka; other bureaus are unaffected.
2026-05-15 Fine-tuned Tokyo HSP predictions
As more HSP applications filed in July and August 2024 received approval, Tokyo’s HSP prediction parameters received a small adjustment. Predictions for HSP applications filed from May 2024 onward are now about 15 days longer.
2026-04-27 Refined far-future prediction intervals
Narrowed the optimistic-to-conservative interval for months without actual data (the green line), preventing the far-future interval from appearing excessively wide. The median prediction and the interval for months with data (the blue line) are unchanged.
2026-04-25 Recalibrated Tokyo HSP and Humanities predictions
Based on recent feedback and a review of the case samples, Tokyo HSP processing slowed noticeably around April 2024. The model now captures this change separately: predictions for HSP applications filed from May 2024 onward are about 2–3 weeks longer, while predictions for Humanities applications filed from late 2024 onward are about 1–2 weeks shorter. Other application periods change only slightly, and other bureaus are unaffected.
2026-04-25 Added month-over-month prediction comparisons
You can now compare the current prediction with the previous month’s, including changes in estimated wait time and decision date. The chart also overlays the previous month’s prediction curve, making the overall trend easier to see.
2026-04-09 Improved Tokyo prediction accuracy
Refined Tokyo HSP and Humanities predictions using more real approval cases, so that results for different application periods better match actual outcomes. Other bureaus are unaffected.
2026-04-06 Clarified bureau-level differences by visa type
Existing case data show no significant difference in HSP and Humanities wait times in Yokohama, Osaka, or Nagoya. So far, Tokyo is the only bureau where HSP wait times appear to be about 1.27 times as long as Humanities wait times. One possible explanation is Tokyo’s monthly volume of about 2,800 cases, which may make separate processing tracks by visa type feasible; however, the public data do not confirm the actual review process. Bureaus without enough case data currently receive no visa-type adjustment.
2026-04-05 Adjusted visa-type predictions by bureau
After adding real approval cases from Osaka and other bureaus, the data showed no significant difference between HSP and Humanities wait times in Osaka, unlike Tokyo. Non-Kantō bureaus therefore no longer use Tokyo’s visa-type adjustment rules: Osaka is now calibrated using its own case data, while other bureaus without enough data receive no visa-type adjustment for now. Case collection continues, to surface any bureau-specific patterns.
2026-04-01 Predictions now update automatically with new data
Upgraded the prediction algorithm so that whenever new immigration data is published, applicants still awaiting a decision automatically receive updated predictions. The algorithm was validated against 263 real approval cases; the maximum error in Yokohama’s historical backtest fell to about 1.5 months.
2026-03-29 Removed the visa-type adjustment for Yokohama
More than 250 real cases show no significant difference between HSP and Humanities wait times in Yokohama. Yokohama predictions therefore no longer adjust for visa type, and an explanation is shown when Yokohama is selected.
2026-03-29 Corrected Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka predictions
Corrected a bias caused by how the official data was aggregated. Statistics for Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka include data from their branch offices, which had led the model to overestimate processing capacity and underestimate wait times. After the correction, predictions better match actual outcomes; for example, Tokyo changed from about 367 to 407 days. The other eight bureaus are unaffected.
2026-03-29 Added visa-type selection
You can now select HSP (Highly Skilled Professional, including deemed HSP or minashi-HSP) or Humanities. Predictions adjust to reflect differences in processing times between the two visa types.
2026-03-29 Added chart time-range controls
You can switch the chart between the last 2 years, the last 3 years, and the full history. The default is 2 years, keeping the focus on recent trends.
2026-03-28 Fixed mobile display issues
Fixed an issue that obscured some bureau options on mobile, as well as a date-picker display issue on iPhone.
2026-03-27 Fixed prediction-order anomalies
Fixed rare cases where an application filed later was predicted to get a decision earlier than one filed before it. Yokohama prediction accuracy also improved.
2026-03-27 Launched the permanent residence prediction tool
eijuq.pages.dev is now live, with permanent residence wait-time predictions for all 11 immigration bureaus in Japan.