Common questions about the Japan PR (永住) wait time estimator. The estimator itself is on the home page.
Japan's Immigration Services Agency publishes monthly statistics on permanent-residency processing. This tool uses that public data to estimate how long you'd wait for a decision if you filed on a given day, calculated per bureau, and in Tokyo also by application route.
Real approval cases collected from rednote and community tracking sheets are overlaid directly on the tool's current prediction line — the closer a dot sits to the line, the better the prediction. For bureaus with steady processing, the prediction error is usually within 30 days.
The result is a central estimate plus an optimistic–pessimistic range (a normal band of uncertainty, not hard limits). The three lines on the main chart are: Black line (Approximate wait time) Wait time calculated retroactively from all published data — approximately the actual wait time. Used to verify prediction accuracy. Blue line (Predicted with immigration data) Prediction made when the immigration data for that month is already available. This is the prediction under ideal conditions. Green line (Predicted based on trend) Prediction made when the immigration data for that month hasn't been published yet. This is the prediction under incomplete information. The closer to the black line, the more accurate the prediction.
It predicts the decision date — the moment the bureau finishes processing your case and issues a result, counting both approvals and denials. So reaching the predicted date isn't necessarily good news. Denials are usually processed a bit faster, so those actually waiting for an approval may wait a little longer than predicted.
The data comes from Immigration Control Statistics on e-Stat (Japan's official statistics portal), usually published with about a two-month lag. The tool checks for new data every few hours and updates as soon as it appears.
Yes. The tool uses rolling predictions — every time the immigration data updates (roughly monthly), predictions for all application months still waiting are recomputed and get more accurate. Turn on “vs. last month” on the prediction card to see exactly how new data shifted things.
In Tokyo, yes, and the gap is large enough to matter, not a rounding difference. Switch between the two and compare. The mechanism cannot be confirmed from public data; one possible explanation is that Tokyo is large enough to run separate review tracks by application route. Yokohama, Osaka, and Nagoya were checked against real cases and show no meaningful difference; other bureaus don't have enough cases yet, so no distinction is made.
For every bureau except Tokyo, visa type doesn't change the prediction, so it doesn't matter which you choose — just use “All types.” Tokyo is only calibrated for “HSP” and “Humanities”; if you're on Business Manager, Spouse of PR, or another status, “All types” puts you on the all-types baseline, which is the most neutral reference. What decides this is the procedure you filed under, not the status printed on your residence card: if you applied through the points-based HSP procedure, choose HSP even if your card says Engineer/Specialist in Humanities.
No. All computation happens in your own browser; the bureau and application date you pick are never uploaded and never leave your device.
Please tell me. Whether it came through faster or slower than predicted, what you share makes future estimates closer to reality, and gives everyone still waiting a more reliable reference. The application month and the approval month are enough. If convenient, the visa status you held and whether extra documents were requested are also welcome. rednote: ad_astra; email: [email protected]